What the data bureaus publish, we already knew.
Every observation here is drawn from active deal flow and live capital decisions. Not a quarterly summary — a direct window into the firm's working market view.
Inner-ring industrial is not a value play anymore.
Capital that moved into last-mile logistics assets in 2021 is now repricing against a tighter yield environment. The compression trade is over; what remains is an operational story that most institutional buyers are not equipped to underwrite.
The investors still bidding at 2022 multiples are relying on broker guidance. The ones pulling back are reading the same vacancy data we are — and drawing the right conclusion six months earlier.
Market: Sydney, Melbourne / Sector: Industrial & Logistics / Last updated: this quarter
Three positions the consensus is mispricing.
The prestige market is still thin.
Delivery risk is not priced into land.
Flight to quality is not over.
Transaction volume in the $5M–$10M bracket remains 30% below the five-year median. Sellers have not adjusted expectations; buyers have moved to Melbourne. The standoff will break — direction depends on which side blinks first.
Construction cost escalation has not yet fed back into raw land values in Perth's northern corridor. Developers acquiring now are underwriting margins that the build cost environment no longer supports. That gap will close, and not in their favour.
Vacancy in B-grade stock continues to widen while A-grade effective rents hold. The bifurcation is structural, not cyclical. Capital still modelling mean-reversion on secondary office is solving the wrong problem entirely.
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